Entertainment Polymarket July 31, 2026
A Toxic Love Story tops Netflix's US Top 10 movies
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Polymarket prices this A Toxic Love Story at 99%.
A Toxic Love Story ranked as the #1 US Netflix movie, its viewership surpassing all others. The documentary's shocking true crime story and intriguing characters likely contributed to its success. As an overwhelming favorite, the crowd's confidence in A Toxic Love Story was reflected in its odds, which stood at 99% at the close. Despite a notable move in the past 24 hours, +7 pts, the market's favored side matched the actual outcome, indicating the money saw this coming. The decisive factor in A Toxic Love Story's victory was its captivating storyline and the audience's response to it.
Background
Over the period we tracked it, the market's odds have climbed, reflecting growing interest in the documentary. Prior to its release, A Toxic Love Story received attention for its wild true crime story and intriguing characters, setting the stage for its eventual success.
The precedent
- True crime documentaries have been a staple on Netflix's US Top 10 in recent years
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- A Toxic Love Story ranked as the #1 US Netflix movie
- Its viewership surpassed all others
- The documentary's true crime story and characters were a key factor in its success
How outlets frame it
- Mashable: A Toxic Love Story is the wildest true crime doc Netflix has released in years
- Roger Ebert: A Toxic Love Story review: Latest Netflix true crime doc will shock you
What to watch
The success of A Toxic Love Story on Netflix's US Top 10 raises questions about the appeal of true crime documentaries and their ability to captivate audiences.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this A Toxic Love Story at 99%.
24h +7.0 pts
$97.3K traded · $22K in the last day · $7.4K resting liquidity · $57.9K open interest
Resolves on: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pricing Polymarket 99%
Sources
- 'A Toxic Love Story' is the wildest true crime doc Netflix has released in years mashable.com
- A Toxic Love Story – Review | Netflix True Crime Documentary heavenofhorror.com
- A Toxic Love Story review: Latest Netflix true crime doc will shock you rogerebert.com
- So Who Was Lilithistruth from A Toxic Love Story ? Michelle Reveals True Story netflix.com
- The Villain of Netflix's 'A Toxic Love Story' Is Not Who You Think, And That's the Whole Point pajiba.com
Frequently asked questions
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Polymarket prices this A Toxic Love Story at 99%.
What do the sources agree on?
A Toxic Love Story ranked as the #1 US Netflix movie Its viewership surpassed all others The documentary's true crime story and characters were a key factor in its success
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.