Politics Polymarket August 9, 2026
Darline Graham Nordone Seeks to Replace Brother in South Carolina Senate
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner
Polymarket prices this Darline Graham Nordone at 69%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Darline Graham Nordone, sister of late Senator Lindsey Graham, is running in a crowded Republican Senate primary on August 11, 2026, seeking to replace her brother in the US Senate. The special Republican primary for the US Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, with a potential runoff on August 25. While Darline Graham Nordone is a strong favorite, according to the crowd, traders have been cautious, with 69% over the past week, indicating a notable move in the past 7 days, -12 pts.
Background
Darline Graham Nordone, a Republican, is seeking to fill the seat left vacant by her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, who passed away earlier this year. The primary election will determine the Republican nominee for the special election. Darline Graham Nordone has been endorsed by some prominent Republicans, including former President Donald Trump. The Republican primary is expected to be competitive, with several candidates vying for the nomination.
The precedent
- No sitting governor has won the nomination since 1972.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The special Republican primary for the US Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026.
- The potential runoff on August 25, 2026, will decide the final candidate.
- Darline Graham Nordone is running in the primary to replace her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham.
How outlets frame it
- ABC News: Darline Graham Nordone's campaign has been focused on her experience and qualifications for the US Senate.
- NBC News: The Republican primary is expected to be competitive, with several candidates vying for the nomination.
What to watch
The outcome of the special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, will determine the Republican nominee for the US Senate election in South Carolina. A potential runoff on August 25, 2026, will decide the final candidate. The real-world question the market settles is who will win the most votes in the first round.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Darline Graham Nordone at 69%.
24h +2.0 pts 7d -12.0 pts
$140K traded · $55.9K in the last day · $239K resting liquidity · $72.6K open interest
Resolves on: The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing…
Pricing Polymarket 69%
Sources
- Early voting open in special South Carolina Republican primary to replace late Sen. Lindsey Graham on ballot wbtv.com
- Darline Graham tests value of a famous name in South Carolina primary chicagotribune.com
- Darline Graham’s chances of replacing brother on South Carolina ballot after debate newsweek.com
- Trump Backs Lindsey Graham's Sister in South Carolina Senate Race kurdistan24.net
- WATCH: Sen. Lindsey Graham returns home for South Carolina funeral pbs.org
Frequently asked questions
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner
Polymarket prices this Darline Graham Nordone at 69%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The special Republican primary for the US Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026. The potential runoff on August 25, 2026, will decide the final candidate. Darline Graham Nordone is running in the primary to replace her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.