Politics Polymarket July 27, 2026
Donald Trump Posts on Truth Social Ahead of Michigan Primary
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 21 - July 28, 2026?
Polymarket prices this 140-159 at 40%. The reporting broadly agrees.
President Donald Trump is set to rally in Michigan on Monday, a key battleground state in the upcoming primary, as he seeks to maintain momentum in his re-election bid. The event comes as early voting begins in Michigan's Aug. 4 primary, with Trump's campaign looking to capitalize on his popularity in the state. While the market is currently pricing in a relatively high number of posts from Trump between July 21 and July 28, traders put 40% at this level, even though the reporting suggests a more modest output. Over the past 24 hours, the market's confidence in this outcome has shifted by +29.5 pts.
Background
Trump's Truth Social posts have been closely watched by analysts and pundits alike, with many seeing them as a key indicator of his campaign's momentum. The platform has become a key tool for Trump to reach his supporters and promote his message, and his posts have been widely covered in the media. Trump's campaign has also been accused of selling early access to his posts to Wall Street firms, a move that has been criticized by some as ethically repugnant. Despite this, the market is currently pricing in a relatively high number of posts from Trump between July 21 and July 28.
What the coverage agrees on
- President Donald Trump is set to rally in Michigan on Monday, a key battleground state in the upcoming primary.
- Early voting begins in Michigan's Aug. 4 primary on Monday.
- Trump's Truth Social posts have been closely watched by analysts and pundits alike.
How outlets frame it
- Los Angeles Times: The LA Times frames Trump's selling Wall Street early access to his Truth Social posts as 'ethically repugnant'.
- The Washington Post: The Washington Post notes that Trump's Truth Social posts have been widely covered in the media.
What to watch
The market will resolve on July 28, 2026, with the outcome determining the number of posts made by Trump on Truth Social between July 21 and July 28. The event is set to take place in Michigan, a key battleground state in the upcoming primary, and will likely be closely watched by analysts and pundits alike.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 140-159 at 40%.
24h +29.5 pts 7d +27.5 pts
$48.2K traded · $20.6K in the last day · $38.7K resting liquidity · $19.3K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the…
Pricing Polymarket 40%
Sources
- Truth Social to sell trading firms 'fastest' access to Trump's posts reuters.com
- Commentary: Trump's selling Wall Street early access to his Truth Social posts is ethically repugnant, but might be legal latimes.com
- Truth Social will sell investors faster access to Trump’s market-moving posts washingtonpost.com
- Trump Media reportedly mulling fee for first access to social media posts aljazeera.com
- Trump promoted companies on Truth Social days after buying their stocks cnn.com
Frequently asked questions
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 21 - July 28, 2026?
Polymarket prices this 140-159 at 40%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
President Donald Trump is set to rally in Michigan on Monday, a key battleground state in the upcoming primary. Early voting begins in Michigan's Aug. 4 primary on Monday. Trump's Truth Social posts have been closely watched by analysts and pundits alike.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.