Entertainment · Polymarket ·August 10, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo Crowd ahead of press

Spider-Man: Brand New Day eyes $900M domestic as second weekend shatters records

Sony's "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has dominated the domestic box office since its July 31 opening, surpassing "Avengers: Endgame" for the biggest debut ever and following it with a $145 million second weekend — the third-largest in U.S. box office history. Forbes reports the film topped the weekend box office again, while Variety notes it has also become the highest-grossing Hollywood film in India, dethroning "Avatar: The Way of Water." With the film now targeting a domestic gross of $900 million or more by August 31, traders put that outcome at 58%, a level that has swung sharply over the past week as the record-breaking run continues to outpace expectations. The related second-weekend market, favoring a $140–150 million range, was confirmed by Sunday's actuals.

Background

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opened July 31, 2026, setting a domestic preview record of $72 million before claiming the biggest opening weekend in box office history, per Forbes. The film is the latest entry in Sony's Marvel-connected Spider-Man franchise, a series that has consistently ranked among the top domestic earners. The specific question at issue is whether the film's domestic gross — tracked daily by The Numbers — reaches the $900 million-plus bracket by August 31, a threshold only a handful of films have ever crossed. Variety reports the film has already broken records internationally as well, becoming the highest-grossing Hollywood release in India with $52.8 million, surpassing "Avatar: The Way of Water."

The precedent

• Only a small number of films have ever grossed $900 million or more at the domestic box office, including Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avengers: Endgame, and Avatar.
• Avengers: Endgame held the previous domestic opening weekend record before being surpassed, with a debut of approximately $357 million.
• The largest second weekend ever recorded at the domestic box office was Star Wars: The Force Awakens with approximately $149 million.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The film's daily box office performance through the end of August will determine whether it reaches the $900 million domestic threshold by the August 31 resolution date. Weekday holds and the third-weekend drop will be the critical indicators — sustained momentum could push the total into record territory, while a sharper-than-expected decline could leave it just short. The Numbers will publish final figures for each date once studio estimates are replaced with actuals.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.