Entertainment Polymarket July 20, 2026 Crowd ahead of press
Netflix's weekly Top 10 update looms with The Hawk Season 1 in pole position
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Polymarket prices this The Hawk: Season 1 at 85%. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
Netflix will refresh its Top 10 TV shows list for the United States on Tuesday, July 21 at 3:00 PM ET, ranking titles by total domestic views from the prior Monday-through-Sunday window — and The Hawk: Season 1 is the specific outcome in question as the frontrunner to land at number one. The streaming giant's weekly update has become a closely watched weekly pulse-check for which originals are breaking through, and this cycle's question is whether the debut season can hold off whatever else Netflix viewers binged. Traders put The Hawk's chances at 85%, and that line has barely budged in the past day, essentially tracking with the thin coverage rather than racing ahead of it.
Background
Netflix began publishing weekly Top 10 lists on top10.netflix.com in 2021, offering rare transparency into its viewership by ranking both English and non-English TV and film by total hours viewed. The lists update every Tuesday and reflect the previous seven-day period. The Hawk: Season 1 is the candidate being measured here — a first-season title whose debut-week performance would need to outdraw all other eligible Netflix TV shows in the US for the Monday-to-Sunday window. If Netflix fails to post the update by July 24, the question resolves to an open field.
The precedent
- Netflix began publishing weekly Top 10 viewership rankings on top10.netflix.com in June 2021, covering both TV and film in English and non-English categories.
- Netflix's weekly Top 10 lists are updated every Tuesday and reflect viewership data from the prior Monday through Sunday period.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What to watch
Netflix's top10.netflix.com update is expected at 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, July 21. If the list posts on schedule, the number-one US TV show will be confirmed immediately; if it slips, the resolution window stays open through July 24 before defaulting. Watch whether The Hawk: Season 1 appears in the top slot or whether a late-surging title displaces it.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this The Hawk: Season 1 at 85%.
24h -4.0 pts
$93.9K traded · $52.9K in the last day · $69.2K resting liquidity · $37.3K open interest
Resolves on: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pricing Polymarket 85% Kalshi 26%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Polymarket prices this The Hawk: Season 1 at 85%. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 1 source and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.