Politics Polymarket August 19, 2026
Binface wins 20-30% of Clacton by-election votes
✓ The market called it — resolved Binface 20–30%.
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Polymarket prices this Binface 20–30% at 100%.
Nigel Farage reclaimed the Clacton parliamentary seat in a byelection, defeating a slate of fringe candidates, including Count Binface, who won around 20-30% of the vote. The decisive factor was Farage's strong support from his party and the lack of major opposition. The margin of victory was not explicitly stated, but Farage's win was seen as a significant boost to his political career. The market had favored Binface winning 20-30% of the vote, with odds of 100% and a significant move in the past 7 days of +65.5 pts and in the past 24 hours of +63.5 pts, indicating a sharp increase in confidence in Binface's chances. Despite this, the money traded on the market was only moderately high, with a total of $543K and $137K in the past 24 hours.
Background
The byelection was held after the resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage, and it was expected to be a contest between Reform UK and other fringe parties. Count Binface, a satirical candidate, had entered the race to draw attention to the lack of major opposition.
What the coverage agrees on
- Nigel Farage won the Clacton byelection
- Count Binface won around 20-30% of the vote
- The byelection was boycotted by major parties
How outlets frame it
- The Guardian: The result highlights the challenges faced by Reform UK in winning seats in the UK parliament
- BBC: The byelection was a test of Farage's popularity and the party's ability to win seats
What to watch
The result of the byelection has significant implications for Nigel Farage's political career and the future of Reform UK. The party's ability to win seats in the UK parliament will be closely watched, and Farage's leadership will be under scrutiny.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Binface 20–30% at 100%.
24h +63.5 pts 7d +65.5 pts
$543K traded · $137K in the last day · $245K resting liquidity · $248K open interest
Resolves on: A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of…
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- Count Binface wins hearts, if not the election, in bid to defeat Trump ally Nigel Farage in U.K. cbsnews.com
- Nigel Farage defeats Count Binface to reclaim UK parliamentary seat aljazeera.com
- Reform UK's Nigel Farage beats a slate of fringe candidates in election boycotted by major parties apnews.com
- Nigel Farage wins Clacton byelection in contest boycotted by other main parties theguardian.com
- The serial candidates standing against Farage in the Clacton by-election bbc.com
Frequently asked questions
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Polymarket prices this Binface 20–30% at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
Nigel Farage won the Clacton byelection Count Binface won around 20-30% of the vote The byelection was boycotted by major parties
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.