Entertainment Polymarket July 10, 2026
Moana Live-Action Box Office Faces Choppy Waters
"Moana (2026)" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this 39-44m at 50%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Disney's highly anticipated live-action remake of "Moana" is heading into its opening weekend with mixed box office projections, as early preview numbers suggest the film could struggle to meet initial expectations. The movie, which opens on July 10, is now facing forecasts that place its domestic opening weekend gross between $34 million and $39 million. This range, which traders put at 50% probability, marks a significant downward revision from earlier, more optimistic predictions, as several outlets point to a potentially softer debut than anticipated. The film's Thursday previews generated $4.5 million, fueling concerns about its overall weekend performance.
Background
The original animated "Moana" was a critical and commercial success for Disney, and the live-action remake has been a closely watched project. This new adaptation aims to capitalize on the original's popularity while potentially introducing the story to a new generation of viewers. Initial tracking had placed the film's opening weekend much higher, with some projections reaching over $130 million globally and $60-70 million domestically. However, recent data, including preview figures, have led to a recalibration of these expectations, with the film now projected to land in the $34-39 million range domestically for its three-day opening weekend (July 10-July 12).
The precedent
- The original animated "Moana" (2016) grossed over $643 million worldwide.
- Disney's live-action remake of "The Lion King" (2019) had an opening weekend of $191.8 million domestically.
- Disney's live-action remake of "Aladdin" (2019) opened with $91.5 million domestically.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The live-action "Moana" film is set to open on July 10.
- Early box office projections for the film have been revised downwards.
- Thursday previews generated $4.5 million.
Where sources diverge
- Initial box office tracking for "Moana" was reported as $130M+ global opening by Deadline, while Cosmic Book News cited $60M-$70M for domestic tracking, indicating varying early expectations.
- World of Reel projects a $38M+ opening after a $4M+ Thursday, while The Hollywood Reporter states $4.5M in previews without a specific weekend projection.
How outlets frame it
- Deadline: Emphasizes the global potential of the film, initially projecting a strong $130M+ global opening, suggesting a broader international appeal.
- World of Reel: Focuses on the film's potential to be a "box office bomb," highlighting the low Thursday numbers as a key indicator of a weak opening.
- Variety: Frames the situation as "choppy waters," suggesting uncertainty and potential difficulties for the film's box office performance without definitive claims.
What to watch
The final domestic box office figures for "Moana"'s opening weekend will be crucial in determining its trajectory. The Numbers website will publish the definitive data for the July 10-12 period, with resolution expected on July 13. Any significant deviation from current projections could impact future box office forecasts for the film.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 39-44m at 50%.
24h +7.5 pts
$46.5K traded · $39K in the last day · $33K resting liquidity · $23.8K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Moana" (2026) Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 10 - July 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically…
Pricing Polymarket 50%
Sources
- ‘Moana’: Disney Live-Action Take Looks To Welcome $130M+ Global Opening – Box Office Preview deadline.com
- ‘Moana’ Is Heading Toward a Box Office Bomb After $4M+ Thursday, $38M+ Opening Projection worldofreel.com
- Box Office: ‘Moana’ Could Be Headed for Choppy Waters variety.com
- ‘Moana’ Makes Box Office Launch With $4.5M in Previews hollywoodreporter.com
- Moana Box Office Tracking Falls to $60M-$70M as the Bomb Watch Begins cosmicbook.news
Frequently asked questions
"Moana (2026)" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this 39-44m at 50%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The live-action "Moana" film is set to open on July 10. Early box office projections for the film have been revised downwards. Thursday previews generated $4.5 million.
Where do the sources disagree?
Initial box office tracking for "Moana" was reported as $130M+ global opening by Deadline, while Cosmic Book News cited $60M-$70M for domestic tracking, indicating varying early expectations. World of Reel projects a $38M+ opening after a $4M+ Thursday, while The Hollywood Reporter states $4.5M in previews without a specific weekend projection.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Moana" (2026) Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 10 - July 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.