Entertainment Polymarket July 13, 2026
Moana Underwhelms, Opens at $43 Million
"Moana (2026)" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this 39-44m at 100%.
The live-action remake of Disney's 'Moana' opened to a domestic box office total of $43 million on its opening weekend, falling short of initial projections. The film managed to secure the top spot for the weekend, but its performance was widely described as underwhelming, leading to questions about Disney's strategy for its animated-to-live-action remakes. While some previews had anticipated a global opening exceeding $130 million, the domestic figure suggests a cooler reception. The market, which had favored an opening between 39-44m with 100% certainty, accurately anticipated the film's final range, aligning with the eventual outcome.
What the coverage agrees on
- 'Moana' opened below expectations.
- The film's opening weekend total was $43 million.
- 'Moana' was the top-grossing film of the weekend.
How outlets frame it
- Deadline: Focused on the initial high global opening projections ($130M+) that the domestic result ultimately did not support.
- Rotten Tomatoes: Highlighted that 'Moana' underwhelmed despite securing the top spot for the weekend.
- The Hollywood Reporter: Described the opening as 'running aground' and specifically stated the $43M figure.
- The New York Times: Questioned Disney's formula for remakes following 'Moana's' faltering performance.
What to watch
The lukewarm opening for 'Moana' puts pressure on Disney to re-evaluate its approach to live-action remakes, particularly given the high expectations often associated with its beloved animated properties. Future box office performances of similar projects will be closely scrutinized to see if this trend continues or if 'Moana' is an isolated case.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 39-44m at 100%.
24h +1.7 pts
$146K traded · $30.7K in the last day · $49.5K resting liquidity · $32.2K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Moana" (2026) Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 10 - July 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically…
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- ‘Moana’: Disney Live-Action Take Looks To Welcome $130M+ Global Opening – Box Office Preview deadline.com
- Box Office: ‘Moana’ Makes $18 Million on Opening Day variety.com
- Weekend Box Office: Moana Underwhelms but Comes Out on Top editorial.rottentomatoes.com
- ‘Moana’ Runs Aground at Box Office With $43M Opening hollywoodreporter.com
- ‘Moana’ Falters at the Box Office, Casting Doubt on Disney’s Formula nytimes.com
Frequently asked questions
"Moana (2026)" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this 39-44m at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
'Moana' opened below expectations. The film's opening weekend total was $43 million. 'Moana' was the top-grossing film of the weekend.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Moana" (2026) Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 10 - July 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.