Entertainment Polymarket July 1, 2026
Minions & Monsters Eyes Big July 4th Box Office
"Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this 68-77m at 40%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Universal and Illumination's animated feature, "Minions & Monsters," is gearing up for a significant opening weekend over the extended July 4th holiday, with industry projections suggesting it could dominate the domestic box office. The film is widely expected to lead the weekend, with some analysts forecasting an opening around $80 million. The specific outcome of a domestic gross between $68-77 million for its five-day opening, which runs from July 1 to July 5, is seen as a roughly even chance by traders, with the market showing 40% for that range.
Background
The Minions franchise, which began with "Despicable Me" in 2010, has grown into a global animated powerhouse. This new installment marks the seventh film in the Illumination series, continuing the adventures of the popular yellow, babbling characters who are now 16 years old. The franchise has consistently delivered strong box office performances, making each new release a closely watched event for the animation studio and the broader film industry.
The precedent
- The first 'Despicable Me' film, which introduced the Minions, was released in 2010.
- 'Minions: The Rise of Gru' (2022) had a domestic opening weekend of $107 million, setting a new July 4th holiday record.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Minions & Monsters is expected to lead the July 4th holiday weekend box office.
- The film is projected to have a strong global opening.
- It is the seventh movie in the Minions/Despicable Me franchise.
How outlets frame it
- Variety: Emphasizes the domestic box office target for 'Minions & Monsters' while also noting the expected drop for 'Supergirl', framing the holiday weekend as a competitive landscape.
- Deadline: Highlights the global box office potential, projecting a substantial $170M worldwide opening, indicating a focus on international performance alongside domestic.
- Explosion Network: Notes the film's debut in Australia, placing its performance in the context of other ongoing animated hits like 'Toy Story 5'.
What to watch
The domestic box office performance of "Minions & Monsters" will be closely monitored as final figures for its five-day opening weekend, spanning July 1 to July 5, are tallied. The official resolution for this market, based on The Numbers figures, is expected around July 6, providing a clear picture of the film's initial theatrical success. A significant shift in box office tracking could see the market's +14 pts fluctuate.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 68-77m at 40%.
24h +14.0 pts
$50.5K traded · $44K in the last day · $69.1K resting liquidity · $25.8K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (July 1 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of…
Pricing Polymarket 40%
Sources
- Box Office: ‘Minions & Monsters’ Aims for $80 Million Over July 4th Holiday Weekend, ‘Supergirl’ Faces 60% Drop variety.com
- ‘Minions & Monsters’ To Conquer The World With $170M Global Weekend – Box Office Preview deadline.com
- ‘Minions & Monsters’ To Conquer The World With $170M Global Weekend – Box Office Preview imdb.com
- Toy Story 5 Stays Number One At The Australian Box Office As Minions & Monsters Debuts explosionnetwork.com
- Weekend Preview: MINIONS & MONSTERS Set to Lead July 4 Weekend boxofficepro.com
Frequently asked questions
"Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this 68-77m at 40%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Minions & Monsters is expected to lead the July 4th holiday weekend box office. The film is projected to have a strong global opening. It is the seventh movie in the Minions/Despicable Me franchise.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (July 1 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.