Politics Polymarket August 11, 2026
Zelenskyy speaks with Trump in July
Who will Trump speak to in July?
Polymarket prices this Elon Musk at 8%.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with Donald Trump in July, according to credible media reporting. The decisive factor was Zelenskyy's request for Trump's help in using Starlink to aid Ukraine's military strikes on Russia. Although the market had favored Elon Musk, the actual outcome was the opposite, with Zelenskyy's call to Trump being the unexpected turn of events. The market had Elon Musk as the nominal front-runner, with odds at 8% before the call, but those odds had moved -37.2 pts over the past week and +4.3 pts in the last 24 hours, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the situation. The total money traded on this market was $794K, with $501K traded in the past 24 hours.
Background
Over the period we tracked it, the market's odds have swung back and forth. However, the key people involved in this situation were Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Elon Musk, who had been mentioned in relation to the use of Starlink to aid Ukraine's military efforts.
What the coverage agrees on
- Zelenskyy spoke with Trump in July
- The call was related to Ukraine's military efforts
- Elon Musk was mentioned in relation to the use of Starlink
How outlets frame it
- The Atlantic: The call from Zelenskyy to Trump highlights the complexities of international relations and the need for diplomacy in times of crisis
- The New Republic: Elon Musk's involvement in this situation raises questions about the role of private companies in international affairs
What to watch
The outcome of this call may have significant implications for Ukraine's military efforts and its relations with the US. It remains to be seen how this development will impact the situation on the ground.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Elon Musk at 8%.
24h +4.3 pts 7d -37.2 pts
$794K traded · $501K in the last day · $234K resting liquidity · $352K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered…
Pricing Polymarket 8%
Sources
- Zelensky Asked Trump for a Favor From Elon Musk theatlantic.com
- Zelenskyy asks Trump to help him get Elon Musk's OK to use Starlink to help with strikes on Russia apnews.com
- Elon Musk Runs to Trump’s Aid in Midterms After Scoring Huge Contract newrepublic.com
- Elon Musk readies major midterm investment for Republicans ahead of November: Sources - ABC News abcnews.com
- GAO finds Elon Musk's DOGE inflated claims of $110 billion in savings for federal government cnbc.com
Frequently asked questions
Who will Trump speak to in July?
Polymarket prices this Elon Musk at 8%.
What do the sources agree on?
Zelenskyy spoke with Trump in July The call was related to Ukraine's military efforts Elon Musk was mentioned in relation to the use of Starlink
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.