Politics Polymarket June 24, 2026
Santa Catarina Governor Election to Take Place in October
Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner
Polymarket prices this Jorginho Mello at 89%. The reporting broadly agrees.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is set to occur on October 4, 2026. Jorginho Mello is currently considered an overwhelming favorite, with traders putting his odds at 89%. This election is significant as it will determine the next governor of Santa Catarina, a state in southern Brazil.
Background
The current governor of Santa Catarina is Jorginho Mello, who has been in office since 2023. The election will take place in a challenging context, with various political and economic issues affecting the state. The market's odds on Jorginho Mello have slipped over the period tracked, with a modest -2 pts over the past week.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled for October 4, 2026.
- Jorginho Mello is currently considered the favorite to win.
What to watch
The upcoming election on October 4, 2026, and potential runoff on October 25, 2026, will be crucial in determining the next governor of Santa Catarina.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Jorginho Mello at 89%.
24h +1.0 pts 7d -2.0 pts
$75.7K traded · $62.5K in the last day · $96.9K resting liquidity · $3.7K open interest
Resolves on: The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholde
Pricing Polymarket 89%
Sources
- Conservatives show unity at rally with Flávio Bolsonaro valorinternational.globo.com
- Brazil elects record-high number of Indigenous mayors, vice mayors & councilors - news news.mongabay.com
- Milei attends conservative gathering with the Bolsonaros en.mercopress.com
- See the Timeline of the Military Dictatorship, from 1964 to 1985 www1.folha.uol.com.br
- CIDG raids compound of ex-NegOr governor visayandailystar.com
Frequently asked questions
Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner
Polymarket prices this Jorginho Mello at 89%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. Jorginho Mello is currently considered the favorite to win.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholde
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.