Entertainment Polymarket June 22, 2026
Toy Story 5 shatters franchise opening record
"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this 158-171m at 99%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Disney's latest animated sequel, Toy Story 5, earned $160 million in North America its opening weekend, delivering the franchise’s biggest debut and bolstering the studio’s summer box‑office slate. The strong start follows a heavily promoted marketing campaign and the return of longtime voice cast, including Tom Hanks and Tim Allen. Industry analysts note the film’s performance could set the tone for the remainder of the 2026 release calendar, especially as families flock to theaters after a year of streaming‑heavy schedules. Traders have priced the 158‑171 million range as an overwhelming favorite (99%), even as the press confirms the $160 million tally.
Market lensThe odds have shifted sharply over the past week (+59.4 pts), indicating the crowd moved ahead of the early reports.
Background
Toy Story 5 is the fifth installment in Pixar’s flagship series, which began in 1995 and has become a cultural touchstone. The previous entry, Toy Story 4, opened to $120 million domestically in 2019, setting a high bar for the franchise. Disney’s acquisition of Pixar in 2006 has allowed the two studios to consistently deliver top‑grossing animated features, with recent successes like Frozen II and Incredibles 2. The $160 million opening places Toy Story 5 ahead of its predecessors and positions it as the most successful debut for any Disney‑Pixar film, reinforcing the studio’s dominance in family entertainment.
The precedent
- Toy Story 4 opened to $120 million domestically in 2019, the previous franchise high
- Frozen II held the record for the biggest domestic opening by an animated film at $130 million in 2019
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Toy Story 5 opened to $160 million domestically
- The film earned $312 million globally in its opening weekend
- It set the franchise’s highest domestic opening
How outlets frame it
- Business Insider: Frames the opening as a battle against home‑screen competition, emphasizing that kids may watch the film on streaming devices
- Variety: Highlights the global $312 million debut and the film’s milestone status within Disney‑Pixar’s animated catalog
- Deadline: Focuses on the franchise‑record domestic figure and its impact on Disney’s year‑to‑date box‑office performance
What to watch
Box‑office analysts will track the film’s second‑weekend hold, expected to dip around 50 percent, and its cumulative domestic total, which could surpass $300 million. The movie also qualifies for the upcoming Academy Awards’ Best Animated Feature category, making its performance a factor in awards‑season buzz.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 158-171m at 99%.
24h +23.4 pts 7d +59.4 pts
$623K traded · $103K in the last day · $287K resting liquidity · $158K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the va
Pricing Polymarket 99%
Sources
- ‘Toy Story 5’ Has A Best Friend At The Box Office: $160M U.S. Opening Reps Record For Franchise, Best YTD – Update deadline.com
- Toy Story 5 officially makes history at the box office bamsmackpow.com
- Box Office: Toy Story 5 Global Debut, Obsession, Backrooms Milestones variety.com
- 'Toy Story 5' opening weekend box office to set franchise record mashable.com
- ‘Toy Story 5’ goes to infinity and beyond at the box office latimes.com
- ‘Toy Story 5’ Sets New Franchise Record With $312 Million Global Box Office Opening thewrap.com
- 'Toy Story 5' rakes in the biggest box-office debut of the year with a franchise-best $160 million - ABC News abcnews.com
- The villain in the biggest movie opening of 2026 so far is the screen your kid will probably watch it on businessinsider.com
Frequently asked questions
"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this 158-171m at 99%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Toy Story 5 opened to $160 million domestically The film earned $312 million globally in its opening weekend It set the franchise’s highest domestic opening
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the va
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.