Politics Polymarket July 31, 2026 Crowd ahead of press
Hamas agrees to Gaza disarmament and Israeli withdrawal in second-phase ceasefire deal
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
Polymarket prices this December 31 at 64%. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
Hamas has agreed to the second phase of a United States-backed ceasefire framework, accepting terms that include the disarmament of its armed groups in the Gaza Strip and a full Israeli withdrawal, according to multiple outlets reporting from Cairo. President Trump announced the agreement, reached through mediation by Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye, calling it a decisive step toward peace. Hamas officials confirmed the disarmament and withdrawal terms to AFP. The deal builds on an initial October ceasefire that halted fighting, secured partial Israeli pullback and hostage releases. Traders put the probability of a formal second-phase agreement by December 31 at 64%, with odds climbing sharply over the past week — running ahead of the still-preliminary language in the reporting.
Background
The first phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire was announced on October 8, establishing a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a designated "yellow line," prisoner exchanges, expanded humanitarian aid, and hostage releases. A second phase was always expected to be harder: it must address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas's disarmament, and new security and governance arrangements for Gaza — issues that eluded negotiators for months. Khalil al-Hayya, who recently took over as Hamas political chief after the killing of his predecessor, is seen by experts as signaling continuity rather than reform. The specific question at issue is whether an official, publicly announced mutual agreement on Phase II is reached by December 31, 2025.
The precedent
- The initial Israel–Hamas ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced on October 8, 2025, after months of failed mediation attempts.
- Hamas has not formally disarmed since its founding in 1987, making any disarmament agreement unprecedented.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Hamas has agreed to a second-phase framework involving its disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
- The agreement was reached through mediation by Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye in Cairo
- President Trump announced the deal as part of a US-backed peace plan
- The framework builds on an initial October ceasefire
Where sources diverge
- Whether the agreement constitutes a finalized mutual deal or merely Hamas's acceptance pending Israeli confirmation — outlets frame it as an agreement, but no cited report confirms Israel's formal assent
How outlets frame it
- france24: Emphasizes the gap between Trump's confident declaration of complete disarmament and Hamas's more cautious language to AFP about what was actually reached, suggesting the announcement may outrun the substance.
- Fox News: Foregrounds Khalil al-Hayya's appointment as Hamas political chief and the killing of his four sons, framing the leadership transition as continuity rather than reform — a signal that Hamas's negotiating posture may not shift.
What to watch
The immediate test is whether the Cairo framework translates into a formally announced mutual agreement — not just Hamas's acceptance but Israel's public sign-off, which has not yet been confirmed in the cited reporting. Watch for Israel's response, implementation timelines for disarmament and withdrawal, and whether the related Israel–Iran ceasefire and broader regional de-escalation tracks hold or fracture. A signed agreement by the December 31 deadline would resolve the question; any Israeli rejection or delay would push it toward no.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this December 31 at 64%.
24h +2.0 pts 7d +55.0 pts
$2.9M traded · $66.2K in the last day · $28.2K resting liquidity · $47.5K open interest
Resolves on: On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the…
Pricing Polymarket 64%
Sources
- Hamas Delegation Heads to Cairo for Gaza Ceasefire Second-Phase Talks With Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye newscord.org
- Hamas agrees to deal for disarmament, Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza english.alarabiya.net
- Hamas agrees to Gaza deal: what we know euractiv.com
- Hamas confirms disarmament of group and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza belganewsagency.eu
- Hamas To Disarm After Trump Announces Gaza Peace Plan newsweek.com
Frequently asked questions
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
Polymarket prices this December 31 at 64%. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
What do the sources agree on?
Hamas has agreed to a second-phase framework involving its disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza The agreement was reached through mediation by Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye in Cairo President Trump announced the deal as part of a US-backed peace plan The framework builds on an initial October ceasefire
Where do the sources disagree?
Whether the agreement constitutes a finalized mutual deal or merely Hamas's acceptance pending Israeli confirmation — outlets frame it as an agreement, but no cited report confirms Israel's formal assent
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.