Science and Technology Polymarket July 8, 2026
Grok 4.5 Released by SpaceXAI on July 31
✓ The market called it — resolved July 31.
Grok 4.4 released by...?
Polymarket prices this July 31 at 100%.
SpaceXAI officially released its Grok 4.5 model to the general public by July 31, a development that saw the company's AI offerings expand. This launch included an "Opus-class" variant, as confirmed by Elon Musk, and was noted for its application in coding and finance tasks. The market had anticipated this outcome, with the "July 31" option closing as an overwhelming favorite at 100%, reflecting strong confidence in the release date.
Background
Leading up to the release, Elon Musk had indicated that top engineers from SpaceX and Starlink were being redirected to work on Grok. This strategic allocation of resources underscored the company's commitment to advancing its AI capabilities. Over the period this market was tracked, the odds for a July 31 release had swung back and forth, reflecting the dynamic nature of product development announcements.
What the coverage agrees on
- SpaceXAI released a new Grok model.
- The new model is named Grok 4.5.
- Elon Musk confirmed the launch of Grok 4.5.
How outlets frame it
- Axios: Focused on the scoop of Musk's SpaceXAI releasing the new model, Grok 4.5.
- Mashable: Highlighted Elon Musk's statement about the 'Opus-class' Grok 4.5 being on the verge of launch.
- Bloomberg: Emphasized the collaboration between SpaceXAI and Cursor, unveiling the Grok AI model for specific tasks like coding and finance.
- Yahoo Finance: Confirmed SpaceXAI's launch of Grok 4.5 for public access, citing Musk's confirmation.
What to watch
The release of Grok 4.5 is expected to enhance SpaceXAI's competitive position in the artificial intelligence sector, particularly with its specialized capabilities for coding and finance. Future developments will likely focus on user adoption and the integration of this new model into various applications.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this July 31 at 100%.
24h +6.5 pts 7d +16.5 pts
$182K traded · $132K in the last day · $131K resting liquidity · $94.9K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and…
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- Scoop: Musk's SpaceXAI releases new model, Grok 4.5 axios.com
- Elon Musk says 'Opus-class' Grok 4.5 is about to launch mashable.com
- Elon Musk says SpaceX is putting top Starship and Starlink engineers to work on Grok businessinsider.com
- SpaceXAI, Cursor Unveil Grok AI Model for Coding, Finance Tasks bloomberg.com
- SpaceXAI to Launch Grok 4.5 for Public Access, Musk Confirms (SPCX) finance.yahoo.com
Frequently asked questions
Grok 4.4 released by...?
Polymarket prices this July 31 at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
SpaceXAI released a new Grok model. The new model is named Grok 4.5. Elon Musk confirmed the launch of Grok 4.5.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.