Science and Technology Polymarket August 5, 2026
GPT-5.6 released to the general public on July 31
✓ The market called it — resolved July 31.
GPT-5.6 released by...?
Polymarket prices this July 31 at 100%.
OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model was released to the general public on July 31. The decisive factor was OpenAI's decision to make the model available, which was preceded by price cuts for two of its GPT-5.6 AI models. The market had favored July 31, with odds of 100% indicating an overwhelming expectation of this outcome. The odds moved modestly over the past 7 days, by +4 pts, and remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, with a move of +0.2 pts.
Background
OpenAI has been developing its GPT-5.6 model, a significant upgrade to its previous models. The company has been working to make the model more accessible and affordable for businesses and individuals. In the lead-up to the release, OpenAI cut prices for two of its GPT-5.6 AI models, Luna and Terra, by up to 80%. This move was seen as a sign that the company was preparing to make the model widely available.
What the coverage agrees on
- OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model was released to the general public on July 31.
- The model was made available after price cuts for two of its GPT-5.6 AI models, Luna and Terra.
- The release of GPT-5.6 marks a significant milestone in AI development.
How outlets frame it
- Marcus on AI | Substack: OpenAI's new model, Astra, is vastly oversold and has significant limitations
- Axios: OpenAI's decision to slash Luna pricing is a significant move in the AI market
What to watch
The release of GPT-5.6 marks a significant milestone in AI development and is likely to have far-reaching consequences for businesses and individuals. As the model becomes more widely available, it will be interesting to see how it is adopted and integrated into various industries.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this July 31 at 100%.
24h +0.2 pts 7d +4.0 pts
$4.2M traded · $317K in the last day · $469K resting liquidity · $565K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT…
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- Get started with OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna on Amazon Bedrock | Artificial Intelligence aws.amazon.com
- OpenAI cuts prices for two of its GPT-5.6 AI models as companies grow sensitive to costs cnbc.com
- OpenAI cuts GPT-5.6 Luna and Terra prices by up to 80% finance.yahoo.com
- OpenAI slashes Luna pricing axios.com
- OpenAI’s amazing — but vastly oversold — new model Astra garymarcus.substack.com
Frequently asked questions
GPT-5.6 released by...?
Polymarket prices this July 31 at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model was released to the general public on July 31. The model was made available after price cuts for two of its GPT-5.6 AI models, Luna and Terra. The release of GPT-5.6 marks a significant milestone in AI development.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.