Geopolitics · Polymarket ·July 18, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Khamenei vows revenge as Trump claims Iran leader is "90% gone"

Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his slain father as Iran's supreme leader, has publicly vowed revenge for the killing, even as Donald Trump threatens to "decimate" Iran and claims the new leader is "90% gone." The rhetoric from both sides has hardened rather than softened in recent days, with France 24 and DW reporting Khamenei's vows of vengeance and Trump doubling down on winning the conflict "one way or the other." Against this backdrop of escalating threats, the proposition that the two men will have spoken directly by December 31 — a deadline now roughly 166 days away — appears increasingly remote. Traders put the chance at 8%, which aligns with the hostile coverage, and those odds have barely moved over the past week (+1.4 pts), suggesting neither the threats nor the funeral diplomacy have shifted expectations of actual contact.

Background

Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of supreme leader following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose killing Tehran attributes to actors aligned with the United States. The funeral procession drew regional figures including Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who days later met Trump in the Oval Office — a juxtaposition Axios highlighted as emblematic of the impossible balancing act facing Iraqi leaders caught between Washington and Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with PBS reporting that its fate complicates any prospect of talks. The specific question at issue is whether any in-person, phone, or video interaction between Trump and the younger Khamenei occurs by December 31.

The precedent

• No sitting U.S. president has held a direct conversation with an Iranian supreme leader since the 1979 Islamic Revolution
• The U.S. and Iran have communicated through intermediaries such as Oman and Switzerland for decades, never through direct leader-to-leader contact

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The December 31 deadline gives roughly 166 days for a breakthrough, but no diplomatic channel is publicly active. Watch for any softening in Trump's threats toward Iran, any back-channel outreach via intermediaries such as Iraq or Oman, and whether the Strait of Hormuz becomes a point of negotiation rather than confrontation. Any shift in +0.7 pts could signal that traders see an opening the headlines have not yet reflected.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.