Politics Polymarket June 24, 2026
Darializa Avila Chevalier wins NY-13 Democratic primary
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Adriano Espaillat at 72%.
Darializa Avila Chevalier won the Democratic primary for New York's 13th congressional district. The primary took place on June 23, 2026. Avila Chevalier was backed by progressive groups and Mamdani, a significant endorsement. The incumbent, Adriano Espaillat, was the market's favored side with 72% probability of winning, but the crowd missed it. The decisive factor was likely the strong backing from progressive groups and Mamdani.
Background
The NY-13 Democratic primary was a closely watched race, with several candidates vying for the nomination. The district has historically been a stronghold for Democrats. Adriano Espaillat had been the incumbent representative since 2017. Darializa Avila Chevalier, a progressive candidate, ran a strong campaign with significant support from groups like Mamdani.
What the coverage agrees on
- Darializa Avila Chevalier won the NY-13 Democratic primary
- The primary was a significant upset, with incumbent Adriano Espaillat losing
- Avila Chevalier was backed by progressive groups and Mamdani
How outlets frame it
- NBC News: The primary result was seen as an upset, with Espaillat being a well-established incumbent.
- The New York Times: The win by Avila Chevalier was attributed to her strong backing from progressive groups.
- The Guardian: The result was part of a larger sweep by Mamdani-backed candidates in New York City primaries.
What to watch
The win sets up a general election matchup between Avila Chevalier and the Republican nominee. The primary result may have implications for the balance of power in the House of Representatives. Avila Chevalier's progressive backing could influence the general election.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Adriano Espaillat at 72%.
24h +14.5 pts 7d +27.0 pts
$338K traded · $63.8K in the last day · $242K resting liquidity · $122K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 20
Pricing Polymarket 72%
Sources
- Democratic Rep. Adriano Espaillat loses primary to Mamdani-backed Darializa Avila Chevalier nbcnews.com
- New York 13th Congressional District Primary 2026: Live Election Results nytimes.com
- New York Primary Election results: Brad Lander, Claire Valdez, Darializa Avila Chevalier win Democratic primaries abc7ny.com
- Darializa Avila Chevalier wins NY-13 Democratic primary, AP says ny1.com
- Live NY-13 Democratic primary election results 2026 fox5ny.com
- Darializa Avila Chevalier Wins NY-13 Primary: AP patch.com
- Mamdani-backed candidates sweep Democratic primaries in New York City theguardian.com
- Clean sweep for Mamdani-backed candidates in New York's Democratic primary bbc.com
Frequently asked questions
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Adriano Espaillat at 72%.
What do the sources agree on?
Darializa Avila Chevalier won the NY-13 Democratic primary The primary was a significant upset, with incumbent Adriano Espaillat losing Avila Chevalier was backed by progressive groups and Mamdani
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 20
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.