Politics Polymarket June 21, 2026
NY-13 Democratic Primary Heats Up
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Adriano Espaillat at 63%. The reporting broadly agrees.
The NY-13 Democratic primary is set to take place on June 23, with incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat facing a challenge from Darializa Avila Chevalier. This primary has garnered attention due to the contrasting views of the candidates on key issues. Traders put Espaillat's chances at 63%, reflecting the current outlook on his candidacy.
Market lensThe market's odds on Espaillat reflect a high level of confidence in his candidacy, but the move in his odds over the past 7 days, as indicated by +20 pts, shows the race may be tighter than initially thought.
Background
Rep. Adriano Espaillat has been serving the NY-13 congressional district and is now seeking the Democratic nomination for another term. His opponent, Darializa Avila Chevalier, has been vocal about her disagreements with Espaillat's stance on several issues, including ICE and campaign funding. The race has seen debates and discussions, highlighting the differences between the two candidates.
What the coverage agrees on
- Rep. Adriano Espaillat is the incumbent
- Darializa Avila Chevalier is challenging Espaillat
- The primary is scheduled for June 23
What to watch
The primary election is scheduled for June 23, and the outcome will determine the Democratic nominee for the NY-13 congressional district seat.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Adriano Espaillat at 63%.
24h +2.0 pts 7d +20.0 pts
$294K traded · $54.8K in the last day · $271K resting liquidity · $110K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 20
Pricing Polymarket 63%
Sources
- New York 12th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls nytimes.com
- Lucky 13? Darializa Avila Chevalier Answers Questions That Rep. Adriano Espaillat Won’t nyc.streetsblog.org
- NY-13 Congress primary: Espaillat and Avila Chevalier spar over ICE, campaign funding in radio debate amny.com
- UPDATE NY-13 Race Heats Up: Espaillat Vs Avila Chevalier norwoodnews.org
- Race Odds — New York 2026 Elections cityandstateny.com
- Early voting starts June 13 for Long Island congressional primaries longislandpress.com
- New York City 2026 Congressional Polling: NY-07, NY-10, NY-12 - emersoncollegepolling.com
- Mamdani turns his back on another mainstream Latino Democrat in NY-13 race nydailynews.com
Frequently asked questions
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Adriano Espaillat at 63%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Rep. Adriano Espaillat is the incumbent Darializa Avila Chevalier is challenging Espaillat The primary is scheduled for June 23
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 20
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.