Politics Polymarket August 19, 2026
Lisa Demuth wins Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Lisa Demuth at 100%.
Lisa Demuth won the Republican primary for Minnesota governor, defeating Trump-backed Mike Lindell. The decisive factor was Demuth's strong grassroots support and campaign organization. She won with a significant margin, outpacing Lindell in multiple counties. The result was a surprise to some, given Lindell's endorsement by former President Donald Trump, but the market had Lisa Demuth as an overwhelming favorite, with 100% odds. Despite the sharp move in the past 7 days, with odds moving +84 pts, and a further sharp move in the past 24 hours, with odds moving +29.5 pts, the money saw it coming, with total volume traded at $861K and a surge in interest in the past 24 hours, with $93.3K traded.
Background
The road to this result began with a crowded field of candidates vying for the Republican nomination. Trump-backed Mike Lindell was seen as a strong contender, but Lisa Demuth's grassroots support and campaign organization ultimately gave her the edge she needed. The New York Times reported on Eric Barlow's defeat of Megan Degenfelder, the state superintendent of education, highlighting the limits of the president's favor. Tom Begich, a former Democratic legislator and singer-songwriter, will be one of four candidates on the ranked-choice ballot for governor in November.
What the coverage agrees on
- Lisa Demuth won the Republican primary for Minnesota governor
- She defeated Trump-backed Mike Lindell
- The result was a surprise to some, given Lindell's endorsement by former President Donald Trump
How outlets frame it
- The New York Times: The result highlights the limits of the president's favor, as Eric Barlow's defeat of Megan Degenfelder shows
What to watch
The result sets the stage for a competitive general election in November, with Lisa Demuth facing off against a Democratic opponent. The real-world stakes are high, with the governor's office holding significant influence over state policy and budgeting.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Lisa Demuth at 100%.
24h +29.5 pts 7d +84.0 pts
$861K traded · $93.3K in the last day · $902K resting liquidity · $239K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- Lisa Demuth wins republican gubernatorial primary in Minnesota kttc.com
- Trump-backed Mike Lindell loses primary for Minnesota governor to Lisa Demuth npr.org
- Lisa Demuth beats Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell in GOP primary for Minnesota governor minnesotareformer.com
- Lisa Demuth tops Mike Lindell in GOP primary in Minnesota governor's race cbsnews.com
- Lisa Demuth wins GOP primary for Minnesota governor over Trump-backed Mike Lindell lemonde.fr
Frequently asked questions
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Lisa Demuth at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
Lisa Demuth won the Republican primary for Minnesota governor She defeated Trump-backed Mike Lindell The result was a surprise to some, given Lindell's endorsement by former President Donald Trump
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.