Guides

Prediction-market guides

How prediction markets work, how the platforms compare, how to read the odds — plus durable hubs for the events the crowd trades, with live odds embedded.

Explainers

• How Prediction Markets Work

  A plain explainer of how prediction markets work: contracts that pay $1 if an event happens, why prices read as crowd probabilities, and where they fall short.

• What Is Polymarket?

  Polymarket is a USDC-based prediction market where people trade on real-world events. Learn how it works, what it covers, and its US regulatory status.

• What Is Kalshi?

  Kalshi is a US, CFTC-regulated event-contracts exchange. Learn what it is, how it works, what you can trade, and how it differs from Polymarket.

• Are Prediction Markets Accurate? What the Evidence Shows

  A balanced, sourced look at prediction market accuracy: academic calibration findings, where markets beat polls, and where they fail on thin markets and bias.

• Kalshi vs Polymarket: How the Two Prediction Markets Compare

  Kalshi vs Polymarket compared on regulation, currency, US access, market breadth, fees, liquidity, and accuracy — and when each platform is more useful.

• How to Read Prediction-Market Odds

  A practical guide to reading prediction-market odds: price as implied probability, what moves and volume mean, and common misreadings to avoid.

• Prediction Markets vs. Polls: How They Differ and How to Read Both

  Prediction markets vs polls: what each actually measures, where each is strong or weak, why markets move faster, why polls can be more representative, and how to use both.

• Prediction Markets vs. Sportsbooks: How Each One Sets a Price

  Prediction markets and sportsbooks both quote odds on outcomes, but they price, profit, and are regulated differently. A plain-English explainer of how each works.

• Are Prediction Markets Legal in the United States?

  Are prediction markets legal in the US? A plain guide to CFTC oversight, Kalshi and Polymarket, the sports event-contract fight, and how the rules keep shifting.

• How Prediction Markets Make Money

  How prediction markets make money: trading fees, the maker-taker model, the bid-ask spread, and why an exchange like Kalshi or Polymarket is not your counterparty.

• Is Polymarket Legit? Trust, Safety, and the Real Risks

  Is Polymarket legit and safe? A neutral look at its CFTC history, USDC custody on Polygon, UMA oracle resolution, contested disputes, and the real risks to weigh.

• Prediction Markets vs. the Stock Market: What Each One Actually Prices

  Prediction markets vs the stock market: what each prices, binary event contracts vs equity shares, how price discovery, fees, and CFTC vs SEC regulation differ.

• What moves prediction-market odds

  What moves prediction-market odds: how news, order flow, liquidity, informed traders, time decay, and cross-platform arbitrage push implied probabilities up or down.

• How prediction markets resolve and settle

  How prediction markets resolve: winning shares pay $1, losers $0. How Kalshi settles under CFTC rules and how Polymarket uses the UMA optimistic oracle.

Event hubs

• Fed Rate Decision Odds Explained

  How prediction markets and futures price the odds of a Fed rate hike, hold, or cut, how FOMC meetings work, and which data moves the probabilities.

• 2028 US Presidential Election Odds

  How 2028 US presidential election odds work: the primary-to-general race structure, key dates, how winner markets resolve, and why early odds swing.

• US Recession Odds: How Markets Price the Risk of a Downturn

  How US recession odds work: the NBER definition vs. the two-quarter rule, the indicators markets watch, how recession markets resolve, and why timing is hard.

• 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner Odds: How the Outright Markets Work

  How 2026 FIFA World Cup winner odds work and resolve on prediction markets, the expanded 48-team format and dates, and what moves the outright probabilities.

• Super Bowl Odds and NFL Championship Futures

  How Super Bowl futures markets work, the NFL season and playoff timeline, how to-win-it-all odds resolve, and what moves them. A plain, evergreen explainer.

• NBA Finals and Championship Odds, Explained

  How NBA championship futures and Finals odds work: playoff structure, how markets resolve, and what shifts a team's title probability across a season.

• Bitcoin Price Prediction Odds

  How Bitcoin price prediction markets work: what "BTC above $X by date" odds mean, how they resolve on Polymarket and Kalshi, and how to read them.

• Oscars Odds: A Guide to Academy Awards Prediction Markets

  How Oscars odds and Academy Awards prediction markets work: Best Picture, the awards-season timeline, what resolves a market, and what moves the numbers.

• 2026 Midterm Elections Odds

  2026 US midterm odds explained: what's up in the House, Senate and governorships, how control markets resolve, and what moves the implied probabilities.

• Government Shutdown Odds: How Markets Price a Funding Lapse

  Government shutdown odds explained: how a federal funding lapse works, the appropriations and continuing-resolution calendar, and how shutdown markets resolve.

• Premier League Odds: Pricing the Title, Top Five, and Relegation

  How prediction markets price Premier League odds: the title race, Champions League places, and the three relegation spots, how futures resolve, and what moves the line.

• AGI Odds: How Markets Price the Race to General AI

  AGI odds explained: how prediction markets price when AI reaches artificial general intelligence, how these markets resolve, and why the definition is contested.

• Champions League Odds

  How UEFA Champions League winner odds work: the 36-team league phase, knockout bracket, how outright futures resolve, and what moves the prices through the season.

• Presidential Approval Rating Odds

  How prediction markets price presidential approval rating odds: what approval measures, how poll aggregators set the number, how markets resolve, and what moves it.

• Stock Market Crash & Correction Odds

  How prediction markets price the odds of a stock market crash, correction, or bear market in the S&P 500 — what the contracts measure, how they resolve, and what moves them.

• Next Fed Chair Odds

  Track next Fed Chair odds: how prediction markets price who leads the Federal Reserve, the nomination and Senate process, and what moves the implied probabilities.

• Inflation Odds

  How prediction markets price inflation odds: what CPI and PCE measure, how CPI markets resolve on the BLS print, and what moves the numbers each month.