Commodities · Kalshi ·July 25, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Hostilities Continue

Oil prices have been volatile in recent months, with the current price of oil as of July 22, 2026 at $75.32. Despite the ongoing US-Iran war, oil prices have not gone crazy, with some analysts attributing the stability to the current price of oil being below the market's expectation of $82.51 or above by July 31. According to the market, the crowd is overwhelmingly confident that oil prices will reach this level, with 99% favoring a yes outcome. However, recent developments suggest that the market's confidence may be misplaced, with the current price of oil showing little change over the past 24 hours, 0 pts.

Background

The ongoing US-Iran war has been a major driver of oil price volatility in recent months. Despite the tensions, the current price of oil remains below the market's expectation of $82.51 or above by July 31. The market has been closely watching the situation, with traders monitoring the situation closely. According to recent reports, the US crude output has hit a new high in 2025, which may be contributing to the stability in oil prices. However, the situation remains uncertain, and the market is waiting for further developments.

The precedent

• No major conflict between the US and Iran has resulted in a significant spike in oil prices since 2015.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The market will be watching the situation closely in the coming days, with the resolution date of July 31 looming. Any developments that may impact the price of oil, such as changes in US-Iran relations or shifts in global demand, will be closely monitored.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.