Culture · Kalshi ·July 20, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

David Muir returns to ABC anchor desk amid heavy Trump news cycle

David Muir has returned to the ABC World News Tonight anchor desk after a six-month absence during which substitute anchors filled in, The Mirror US reported on July 17. His return comes as Trump-related stories dominate the news cycle: a new book detailing Trump's impact on the Justice Department broke across outlets on July 20, and the New York Times faces backlash from fourteen outlets over its ICE investigation reporting. The specific question is whether Muir says "Trump" three or more times during a single broadcast before the market's July 31 resolution. Traders put that outcome at 99%, a level consistent with the volume of Trump-related stories currently driving coverage. The odds have swung back and forth over the tracking period, and a sharp +16 pts move in the past day aligns with the Justice Department book and ICE reporting surging into the cycle.

Background

David Muir has anchored ABC World News Tonight since 2014, and the broadcast has been the most-watched evening newscast in the United States for several consecutive seasons. His six-month absence, noted by The Mirror US, was the longest sustained break of his anchor tenure. The proposition — whether Muir says "Trump" three or more times in a single broadcast — turns on how many stories in a given night's rundown involve the former president directly. With a new book on Trump's Justice Department impact and a fierce multi-outlet dispute over Times ICE reporting both developing on July 20, the volume of Trump-adjacent news is unusually high heading into the final days before the July 31 resolution.

The precedent

• David Muir has anchored ABC World News Tonight since succeeding Diane Sawyer in September 2014.
• ABC World News Tonight with David Muir has been the most-watched evening network newscast in the United States for multiple consecutive seasons.
• Donald Trump has remained a near-daily subject of national news coverage since leaving office in January 2021, including through his 2024 campaign and subsequent legal proceedings.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The market resolves on July 31, giving roughly eleven days of broadcasts to settle the question. Watch whether the Justice Department book story and the ICE reporting dispute sustain momentum across multiple news cycles or fade — sustained coverage increases the likelihood that any given night's rundown includes three or more Trump references. Muir's own coverage decisions and ABC's editorial framing of both stories will determine how prominently Trump's name surfaces.

AI-written briefing grounded in 4 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.