Culture Kalshi September 22, 2026
Trump did not say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" this week
✗ The market missed this — resolved Voter ID.
What will Trump say this week?
Kalshi prices this TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome at 99%.
Donald Trump did not utter the phrase "Trump Derangement Syndrome" this week. This outcome occurred amidst a period of notable legal and political challenges for Trump, as reported by NPR, and as he engaged in high-profile international meetings. The market had heavily favored the phrase's appearance, with 99% odds suggesting it was a near certainty that Trump would use the term. However, his public remarks did not include the specific phrase, leading to a resolution against the market's expectation.
Background
Leading up to the resolution, the market's odds for Trump to say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" had consistently climbed, reflecting a growing expectation among participants. This occurred as Trump engaged in various public appearances, including at the United Nations and meetings with China's Xi Jinping, where his words were under scrutiny.
What the coverage agrees on
- Trump was involved in high-level meetings this week, including with China's Xi Jinping and at the United Nations.
- Trump has faced a challenging period recently due to legal and political setbacks.
How outlets frame it
- NPR: The past couple of weeks have been particularly challenging for Trump with a series of legal and political setbacks.
- The Washington Post: At the United Nations on Tuesday and in meetings with China's Xi Jinping on Thursday, the president will largely stand alone.
What to watch
With the specific phrase not used, attention will likely remain on Trump's future public statements and how he characterizes political opposition. The ongoing legal and political setbacks he faces will continue to shape the narrative around his rhetoric.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome at 99%.
24h +40.0 pts
$35.1K traded · $23.5K in the last day · $32.4K open interest
Resolves on: If TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome, or a plural or possessive form of TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome, is stated by Donald Trump before Sep 21, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 99%
Sources
- My Trump Derangement Syndrome laprogressive.com
- WSJ's top editor self-diagnoses with a 'virulent' form of Trump Derangement Syndrome rawstory.com
- Top Wall Street Journal Editor Utterly Shreds Trump After Years Of Resisting ‘TDS’ huffpost.com
- MAGA Supporters Slam Dallas Bakery Over Anti-Trump 'Trumpalooza' Cookies Amid GOP Convention okmagazine.com
Frequently asked questions
What will Trump say this week?
Kalshi prices this TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome at 99%.
What do the sources agree on?
Trump was involved in high-level meetings this week, including with China's Xi Jinping and at the United Nations. Trump has faced a challenging period recently due to legal and political setbacks.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome, or a plural or possessive form of TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome, is stated by Donald Trump before Sep 21, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 4 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.