Markets · Kalshi ·July 2, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

U.S. adds 57,000 jobs in June, falling short of forecasts

U.S. employers added 57,000 jobs in June, a figure that fell considerably short of economists' predictions and marked a noticeable deceleration in hiring. This "disappointing" report, as The Center Square described it, indicated a cooling labor market, with the total non-farm payroll employment settling far below the 125,000 threshold. The outcome surprised many, as the prediction market had seen the "Above 125,000" side trade at roughly 50% just before the announcement, suggesting a near coin-flip for a stronger outcome. The New York Times noted that U.S. hiring continued at a steady but slower pace, while CBS News highlighted that the 57,000 new hires were much lower than the 100,000 economists had predicted.

Background

The labor market had seen its odds swing back and forth over the period leading up to the June report. Early signs had pointed to a potential jobs boom, possibly influenced by a major tournament, but this was ultimately offset by a decline in hospitality jobs. Economists had generally anticipated a stronger performance, with forecasts often hovering around the 100,000 new hires mark, making the actual June figures a notable divergence from expectations.

What to watch

The weaker June jobs report has already begun to quiet discussions around potential interest rate hikes, according to Kiplinger, as the Federal Reserve may now have less pressure to tighten monetary policy. Future reports will be closely watched to determine if this slowdown is a temporary blip or the start of a more sustained trend in the U.S. labor market.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.