Culture · Kalshi ·August 13, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Applied Materials nears earnings with AI demand and supply chain in focus

Applied Materials is heading into its next earnings call with investors watching whether management addresses supply chain pressures alongside surging AI-tool demand. The company's stock has climbed roughly 105% year-to-date but sits about 25% below its June all-time highs, according to Benzinga, reflecting tension between record fiscal 2025 results and questions about sustainability. Investopedia and Barchart are both weighing how much the stock might move post-print, while Simply Wall St. highlights AI tool demand as the bullish anchor. Whether any Applied Materials representative — including the call's operator — says the phrase "Supply Chain" during the call, including Q&A, is the specific proposition in play, with resolution set for December 31, 2026. Traders put the odds of that phrase surfacing at 95%, a level that aligns with how routinely semiconductor-equipment executives discuss component and materials logistics on these calls.

Background

Applied Materials, headquartered in Santa Clara, is one of the world's largest semiconductor-equipment makers, supplying the wafer-fabrication tools that chipmakers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel rely on. The company has been a primary beneficiary of the AI buildout, as foundries and memory makers ramp capacity for advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory. Its fiscal 2025 results have been described as record-setting, yet the stock's 25% pullback from June highs signals investor unease about whether AI-driven orders can offset cyclical weakness in legacy segments. Supply chain has been a recurring theme across semiconductor-equipment earnings calls for several quarters, as component shortages, export controls, and geographic diversification of manufacturing capacity have forced companies to address logistics and sourcing questions from analysts. The market resolving on December 31, 2026, gives it a long runway — roughly 140 days from mid-August — for the next call to occur and for the specific phrase to be spoken.

The precedent

• Applied Materials typically reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings in mid-to-late November, consistent with its historical reporting calendar.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The next Applied Materials earnings call has not yet been scheduled, but the company typically reports fiscal Q4 results in mid-to-late November. Investors will be listening for whether management addresses supply chain alongside AI demand commentary and capital-spending guidance. A +15 pts shift in sentiment could signal fresh positioning ahead of the call date announcement. Nearby earnings from Home Depot, Baidu, and Lowe's in the coming days may also set the tone for how markets receive tech and industrial results.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.