Health Kalshi June 17, 2026
Measles Cases Rising
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
Kalshi prices this At least 4000 at 55%. The reporting broadly agrees.
The US is at risk of losing its measles elimination status, with the crowd giving a 55% chance of average annual cases exceeding 4000, amid essentially flat odds movement over the past 24 hours, as indicated by the 0 pts, and vaccination rates are plunging, according to recent reports
Market lensThe crowd's money is closely aligned with the press reports of declining vaccination rates and rising measles cases, with the market's odds reflecting the uncertainty around the US measles status
Background
The market resolves if the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4000, with $29.4K in total money traded, and the US could lose its measles elimination status due to low vaccination rates, with a resolution date in about 930 days
What the coverage agrees on
- US measles elimination status is at risk
- Vaccination rates are declining
- Measles cases are rising
What to watch
Upcoming vaccination rate reports and measles case updates may move the odds, with $62 in recent trading activity
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this At least 4000 at 55%.
24h 0.0 pts
$29.4K traded · $62 in the last day · $13.2K open interest
Resolves on: If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 55%
Sources
- Measles Elimination Status: What It Is and How the U.S. Could Lose It kff.org
- What's Behind the Global Resurgence of Measles? cfr.org
- Child vaccination rate drops sharply in Michigan as RFK Jr influences policy detroitnews.com
- A large immigration detention camp in Texas is closed to visitors amid measles outbreak bostonherald.com
- US measles status in jeopardy politico.com
- U.S. vaccination rates are plunging. Look up where your school stands. washingtonpost.com
- US science budgets have been spared. So why is no one celebrating? timeshighereducation.com
- The Ephemeral Presidency washingtonmonthly.com
Frequently asked questions
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
Kalshi prices this At least 4000 at 55%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
US measles elimination status is at risk Vaccination rates are declining Measles cases are rising
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.