Markets · Polymarket ·July 27, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

CXMT soars 466% in debut, topping Intel's market cap

Hefei-based CXMT, China's leading domestic memory chipmaker, surged roughly 466% in its market debut after raising 57.92 billion yuan ($8.6 billion) at 8.66 yuan per share, making it the most valuable company listed in China and pushing its market capitalization past Intel's, according to Nikkei Asia and CNBC. The IPO — among the largest in China in years — priced at a level the Wall Street Journal had earlier flagged as targeting an $85.5 billion valuation, but the first-day pop obliterated that floor. The specific question now settled is whether that closing cap exceeds 3.5 trillion yuan; traders put the odds at 0%, a figure that has swung sharply over the months we have tracked it, with a -21.9 pts shift in the last day as the debut unfolded. The Chosun Ilbo separately warned the surge could disrupt the global memory chip cycle.

Background

CXMT (Yangtze Memory Technologies' rival and China's biggest NAND flash maker) had been preparing its Shanghai listing for months, with Yahoo Finance and the WSJ reporting the 57.9 billion yuan raise and the $85.5 billion pre-debut valuation target just two weeks ago. The company is central to Beijing's push for semiconductor self-sufficiency, supplying memory chips sought by Apple and competing with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The proposition being tested is whether the closing price on day one produces a market cap at or above 3.5 trillion yuan — a bar that, before the 465%+ surge, looked aspirational but now appears to have been cleared by a wide margin. The market resolves December 31, 2026.

The precedent

• Alibaba's 2014 NYSE IPO raised $25 billion, making it the largest global IPO on record at the time — a benchmark CXMT's $8.6 billion raise falls well short of, though it ranks among China's largest domestic listings.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

Whether CXMT's shares hold above the level implied by a 3.5 trillion yuan cap in the coming sessions, or whether profit-taking pulls it back below that threshold before any official first-day-close confirmation is finalized. The broader memory chip cycle — and whether CXMT's outsized valuation pressures Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — will be the downstream story, as the Chosun Ilbo's cycle-disruption warning suggests.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.