Markets Polymarket August 2, 2026
Fed's Warsh says Inflation 20+ times during July Press Conference
What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
Polymarket prices this Echo of History at 46%.
During his July 29, 2026 press conference, Kevin Warsh stated that inflation has occurred 20+ times. The decisive factor in this outcome was a closer reading of the Fed chair's prepared remarks, which suggested he may be close to raising interest rates. The market had 46% odds of 'Echo of History' being said, roughly a coin-flip, and had moved modestly -3 pts over the past 7 days and notably -7 pts in the past 24 hours. Despite this, the money saw it coming, with $311K dollars traded in total and $204K in the past 24 hours.
Background
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
How outlets frame it
- CNBC: Investors saw Warsh’s press conference as dovish, but a closer reading of the Fed chair's prepared remarks suggests he may be close to raising interest rates.
What to watch
The Fed's interest rate decision and its impact on the economy will be closely watched in the coming days.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Echo of History at 46%.
24h -7.0 pts 7d -3.0 pts
$311K traded · $204K in the last day · $2.6K resting liquidity · $16.3K open interest
Resolves on: Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference. For full rules, see:…
Pricing Polymarket 46%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
Polymarket prices this Echo of History at 46%.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference. For full rules, see:…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 1 source and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.