Markets Polymarket August 18, 2026
US July Core CPI YoY hits 2.5%
Core CPI YoY - July 2026
Polymarket prices this 2.5% at 100%.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy rose 2.5% over the 12-month period ending July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This increase matched forecasts and put pressure on interest rates. The market had favored a 2.5% increase, with the crowd's probability at 100% and a sharp move in odds over the past 7 days of +54 pts. The decisive factor was the slight increase in consumer prices, which rose 0.1% in July, putting the annual rate at 3.4%. The market's confidence in this outcome was evident in the sharp move in odds over the past 24 hours of +53.5 pts.
Background
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly reports on the Consumer Price Index, which tracks inflation. The Core CPI YoY measures the change in prices over the 12-month period ending in July 2026, excluding food and energy. The market had been tracking the odds of a 2.5% increase, which climbed over the period.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy rose 2.5% over the 12-month period ending July 2026.
- The increase matched forecasts.
- The annual rate was 3.4%.
- The Federal Reserve will consider this data when making decisions on monetary policy.
How outlets frame it
- Moomoo: The July CPI report had implications for interest rates and monetary policy.
What to watch
The 2.5% increase in the Core CPI YoY will influence interest rates and have implications for the economy. The Federal Reserve will consider this data when making decisions on monetary policy.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 2.5% at 100%.
24h +53.5 pts 7d +54.0 pts
$140K traded · $55.7K in the last day · $23.5K resting liquidity · $54.1K open interest
Resolves on: This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take…
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- US July CPI YoY +3.4% Vs +3.4% Forecast, Prior +3.5% moomoo.com
- July CPI Expected to Bounce Back After Unexpected June Inflation Decline morningstar.com
- July CPI Report Lowers September Rate-Hike Odds: What to Know kiplinger.com
- July inflation matches estimates, rising 3.4% year over year: CPI breakdown finance.yahoo.com
- Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, as expected, putting the annual rate at 3.4% cnbc.com
Frequently asked questions
Core CPI YoY - July 2026
Polymarket prices this 2.5% at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy rose 2.5% over the 12-month period ending July 2026. The increase matched forecasts. The annual rate was 3.4%. The Federal Reserve will consider this data when making decisions on monetary policy.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.