Science and Technology Polymarket July 15, 2026
July 2026 could rank among hottest on record as heat waves grip globe
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
Polymarket prices this 1st hottest at 81%.
July 2026 is shaping up as one of the hottest Julys on record, with extreme heat gripping Western Europe, the United States, and Southeast Asia in the opening weeks of the month. NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index will determine whether July 2026 ranks as the 1st hottest July ever recorded, with resolution expected around July 30. The month follows June 2026, which Yale Climate Connections reported as Earth's second-hottest June on record, while the WMO confirmed Western Europe had its hottest June ever. Traders put the probability of a first-place finish at 81%, a level that has shifted +35 pts over the past week as heat alerts intensified worldwide.
Background
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies maintains the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, the benchmark dataset for ranking monthly global temperatures against records stretching back to 1880. July typically ranks as the planet's warmest month of the year, making the July record a closely watched barometer of climate trends. Carbon Brief reported in early July that an
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 1st hottest at 81%.
24h +5.0 pts 7d +35.0 pts
$44.8K traded · $28.4K in the last day · $30.1K resting liquidity · $23.9K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided…
Pricing Polymarket 81%
Sources
- June 2026: Earth’s 2nd-hottest June on record yaleclimateconnections.org
- Western Europe has hottest June on record wmo.int
- Extreme Heat and Severe Storms Usher in July nrcc.cornell.edu
- Lancaster County hits record 103 degrees as heat wave intensifies lancasteronline.com
Frequently asked questions
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
Polymarket prices this 1st hottest at 81%.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 4 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.