Culture Polymarket July 7, 2026
"Toy Story 5" Third Weekend Box Office Under {token} Million
"Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this <39m at 99%.
"Toy Story 5" concluded its third weekend at the domestic box office with receipts under million, a figure that, while lower than previous weeks, was widely anticipated. The film continued to hold the top spot in the U.K. and Ireland box office, demonstrating its international appeal even as domestic numbers tapered. The market's favored side, predicting a gross under million, was an overwhelming favorite at 99%, suggesting that the money saw this outcome coming. Despite facing an oversaturated market, the film's consistent performance, coupled with its strong initial run, set expectations for a more moderate third weekend.
Background
The path to this weekend's box office for "Toy Story 5" included a strong opening, crossing the $200 million mark in the U.S. and posting a year-to-date best Tuesday with over $23 million. Its initial success was bolstered by collaborations, such as a one-of-one Porsche 911 trio inspiring a $3 million donation, and continued interest in the franchise, including hidden details and Easter eggs at Disney's Hollywood Studios.
What the coverage agrees on
- "Toy Story 5" maintained a strong international presence.
- The film had a successful initial domestic run, crossing $200 million.
How outlets frame it
- arstechnica: The film, while good, needed to be great to truly thrive in the current superhero-dominated market.
- The Gospel Coalition: The film might resonate more with parents than with children, which is an acceptable dynamic for the franchise.
What to watch
With its third weekend now concluded, attention will turn to "Toy Story 5"'s sustained international performance and its long-term box office trajectory. The film's ability to maintain its dominant position in markets like the U.K. and Ireland will be crucial in determining its overall global success.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this <39m at 99%.
24h +23.2 pts
$47.7K traded · $37.2K in the last day · $58.1K resting liquidity · $25.1K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (July 3 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's…
Pricing Polymarket 99%
Sources
- Porsche in collaboration with Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5 drives real-world impact: One-of-one Porsche 911 trio inspires $3 million donation to three charities newsroom.porsche.com
- ‘Toy Story 5’ Crosses $200M U.S., Posts Best Tuesday YTD With $23M+ – Box Office deadline.com
- ‘Toy Story 5’ Stays Dominant No. 1 at U.K. and Ireland Box Office variety.com
- Hidden Details and Easter Eggs in Toy Story Land at Disney’s Hollywood Studios disneyparksblog.com
- Parents Might Like ‘Toy Story 5’ More than Kids Do. That’s OK. thegospelcoalition.org
Frequently asked questions
"Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this <39m at 99%.
What do the sources agree on?
"Toy Story 5" maintained a strong international presence. The film had a successful initial domestic run, crossing $200 million.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (July 3 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.