CrowdtellsHealth Kalshi June 17, 2026
Measles Cases Rising
Kalshi prices this At least 4000 at 55%.
The US is at risk of losing its measles elimination status, with the crowd giving a 55% chance of average annual cases exceeding 4000, amid essentially flat odds movement over the past 24 hours, as indicated by the 0 pts, and vaccination rates are plunging, according to recent reports
Market lensThe crowd's money is closely aligned with the press reports of declining vaccination rates and rising measles cases, with the market's odds reflecting the uncertainty around the US measles status
What the coverage agrees on
- US measles elimination status is at risk
- Vaccination rates are declining
- Measles cases are rising
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this At least 4000 at 55%.
24h 0.0 pts
$29.4K traded · $62 in the last day · $13.2K open interest
Resolves on: If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 55%
Sources
- Measles Elimination Status: What It Is and How the U.S. Could Lose It kff.org
- What's Behind the Global Resurgence of Measles? cfr.org
- Child vaccination rate drops sharply in Michigan as RFK Jr influences policy detroitnews.com
- A large immigration detention camp in Texas is closed to visitors amid measles outbreak bostonherald.com
- US measles status in jeopardy politico.com
- U.S. vaccination rates are plunging. Look up where your school stands. washingtonpost.com
- US science budgets have been spared. So why is no one celebrating? timeshighereducation.com
- The Ephemeral Presidency washingtonmonthly.com
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice. How this works.